The Death of Another Bhutto...

Having written often about Pakistani politics, I feel compelled to write about the assassination of ex-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Rest assured that I will neither provide a eulogy for the murdered Bhutto, nor an account praising her assassins. Neither will I lament the state of Pakistan’s political system, or the increase of Islamic terrorism in the country.

Benazir Bhutto, for me, was not the pro-democracy alternative to Musharraf that the USA felt she was. Rather, she was a reminder of the corrupt and hypocritical ‘democratic’ regimes of the 1990s. It is surprising to me that, upon her return to Pakistan, the West – at least, her political supporters in the West – completely overlooked her actions during her two tenures as Prime Minister. Having said that, I must mention the fact that she was quite courageous to return to Pakistan and to campaign vociferously for change in the country. Benazir - however much I disliked her political conduct - was a fascinating and bold woman.

What worries me now, as someone who has written papers in support of Musharraf for quite some time, is the impact on his legitimacy and status. With elections scheduled for January 8th, this assassination has put the former Army Chief and current President in a precarious situation. Any instability in the country, as a result of Bhutto’s assassination, is bound to be blamed on the inability of the Musharraf government to control the country. Having imposed Emergency rule once, and having received much criticism for it, Musharraf cannot afford to reinstate such measures to ensure calm; and yet, if peace does not prevail around the country – and in particular areas such as Rawalpindi, Karachi and Lahore – Musharraf will be criticised.

Furthermore, Nawaz Sharif – another former Prime Minister who has returned from exile – has decided to boycott the 8 January elections. Although this had been his initial reaction to the elections when they were announced, he was persuaded by Bhutto to participate. I was surprised that he did so – given that his faction of the Muslim League was slated to win the most seats in recent polls. Also, with the PPP divided (even though they will be bolstered by Bhutto’s ‘martyrdom) and Musharraf’s Muslim League under criticism, Sharif and his Islamist allies would have probably gained much support during these elections.

So what will happen on 8 January? Well – I guess the first question that needs to be asked is, will the elections occur on that date or will they be postponed? I don’t think Musharraf can afford to postpone these elections; but if he doesn’t and Sharif sticks to his boycott, then the elections will be a complete farce, and whoever wins – whether it is Musharraf’s Muslim League or the various Islamist parties under the flag of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal – will not enjoy proper legitimacy. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens in the next few days.

More updates on Pakistan once they come (into my head and in the papers) – for now, off to bed.